Some investment properties look attractive because they are new, offer tax deductions or promise unusually high rent, but those features can hide serious risks. The wrong asset can leave an investor overpaying, competing with endless new supply or depending on a single employer for both tenants and resale demand.In this article, Niro Thambipillay explains the three property types he would avoid, the real numbers behind their risks, and the fundamentals he prefers when helping clients build long-term wealth. TL;DRNiro would avoid fringe house-and-land packages, off-the-plan high-rise apartments and properties in mining or single-industry towns. These assets can ...

NAB expects Australian capital-city property prices to fall about 7% from peak to trough, with the adjustment potentially continuing through late 2026. That sounds severe in a headline, but the bank’s forecast is smaller than Australia’s 2022 to 2023 downturn and does not describe every city or suburb.In this article, Niro Thambipillay examines NAB’s warning, the lending and listings data behind the slowdown, the housing-supply constraints supporting prices, and the early signals that buyer demand may already be returning. TL;DRNAB is forecasting a roughly 7% capital-city decline, led by Sydney and Melbourne, while growth in Brisbane, Adelaide ...

Canada and New Zealand have suffered long property downturns, prompting warnings that Australia could be next. Toronto apartments have lost up to a quarter of their value, while Auckland is down more than $300,000 from its peak. In this article, I compare the five pillars supporting each housing market and explain why Australia's $12 trillion property market is facing very different conditions. TL;DR Canada and New Zealand combined weakening population growth, excess housing supply, rising unemployment, looser lending safeguards, and tax changes that encouraged existing investors to sell. Australia currently has the opposite mix in ...

Australia's four major banks have all reported a sharp fall in new mortgage applications, even though home-loan arrears remain below 1%. In this article, I explain why this is a demand and transaction slowdown rather than a borrower repayment crisis, why prices have not collapsed, how lenders are responding, and why selected property markets could regain momentum before the RBA cuts rates. TL;DR Mortgage applications have fallen at all four major banks, but arrears remain under 1%, so this is not a widespread repayment crisis. Buyers and sellers have both stepped back, keeping transaction volumes ...

The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.35% after three increases earlier in 2026. That decision did not mean the inflation fight was finished, and the RBA explicitly left the door open to another rise if upside risks materialise. In this article, I explain why the Board paused, what could trigger its next move, when economists expect the first cut, and why the period before rates fall may matter most for Australian property buyers. TL;DR The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% because its three earlier increases are still slowing spending ...

Perth property values have slowed sharply after a run of more than 20% annual growth. In July, values rose just 0.1%, while the quarter recorded a 0.3% fall. On the surface, that can look like the end of the boom. But underneath the headline, the market is not showing the ingredients of a crash. It is showing the signs of a market taking a breath. In this article, I break down what has changed, the five forces still supporting Perth, and what the shift means for owners and buyers. TL;DR The frantic phase of the ...

KPMG has sharply revised its Australian property forecast after unexpected inflation, three consecutive cash-rate increases, geopolitical conflict, and federal budget changes weakened buyer confidence. In this article, I examine KPMG's new 2026 and 2027 forecasts, why houses and units may perform differently, and which market fundamentals could drive the next recovery. TL;DR KPMG expects national house values to fall just 1.1% in 2026 while unit values rise 2.2%, followed by a 2027 recovery of 3.4% for houses and 3.7% for units. The forecast describes a V-shaped path rather than a national crash. Performance will split ...

Australian property values recorded their largest monthly fall in almost four years, with declines spreading beyond Sydney and Melbourne. Yet mortgage stress has not surged, auction volumes are falling, and new listings remain constrained. In this article, I explain why the market is frozen rather than dead, which buyers have stepped back, and where early signs of a thaw are appearing. TL;DRNational home values fell 0.7% in July, but the evidence does not show a seller-led collapse. Mortgage stress is broadly unchanged from two years earlier, auction volumes are 19% lower than last year, and new listings ...

Australian home prices may be softening in some cities, yet buying a home keeps getting harder. In this article, I trace the lending and housing-policy changes introduced since 2014, explain how they reduced borrowing capacity and increased competition, and examine why limited construction and rising rents continue to push first-home buyers further behind. TL;DRSince 2014, stricter serviceability buffers, detailed expense verification, and higher assessment rates have reduced how much Australians can borrow. Deposit schemes help some buyers enter sooner but also add demand to an undersupplied market. Meanwhile, investor tax changes can reduce rental supply, lift rents, ...

Australia’s property market is not moving as one. Rolling 30-day figures have turned negative across several capital cities, but the weakness is concentrated in premium markets while affordable, undersupplied suburbs continue to attract strong buyer demand.In this article, Niro Thambipillay explains what the latest city and price-segment data really shows, why a broad 20% to 30% crash remains unlikely, and where buyers are still competing for quality property. TL;DRThe Australian property market is slowing at the headline level, but this is not a uniform national crash. Sydney and Melbourne’s premium segments are driving much of the weakness, ...