Westpac CEO: This Is When Property Prices Start Rising Again. Warns Of Impending Crisis
By: Niro Thambipillay
September 13, 2026
Westpac expects Australia’s property downturn to bottom at about 7% before prices begin rising again, with forecasts of 3% growth in 2027 and 8% in 2028. The bank says the reason is not renewed confidence alone. It is the widening gap between housing demand and the number of homes Australia can actually deliver.
In this article, Niro Thambipillay examines Westpac CEO Anthony Miller’s warning, the National Housing Accord shortfall, construction-industry pressure, migration-driven demand and the early signs that the market could turn sooner than many buyers expect.
TL;DR
Westpac expects the current property downturn to bottom at roughly 7%, followed by price growth of 3% in 2027 and 8% in 2028. CEO Anthony Miller says buyer-focused schemes add demand without creating supply, while Australia is already about 83,000 homes behind its housing target. With construction projects struggling to stack up and net overseas migration forecast at 295,000, the shortage could bring the market bottom forward.
Key Takeaways
- Westpac sees a defined bottom: the bank expects a roughly 7% downturn before prices rise 3% in 2027 and 8% in 2028.
- Demand is still larger than supply: Miller says this basic imbalance cannot be ignored.
- The housing target is slipping: annual approvals are running about 40,000 homes below the 240,000 required.
- Construction capacity remains fragile: 1,522 building firms failed in New South Wales during the last financial year.
- Early demand may already be returning: buyer interest is improving while many sellers are still holding properties back.
What Did the Westpac CEO Warn About?
Westpac CEO Anthony Miller says Australia’s chronic housing shortage will eventually overpower the current downturn. He expects prices to bottom after a total decline of about 7%, then begin rising again as the gap between available homes and buyer demand reasserts itself.
1. Westpac Says This Downturn Could Bottom Around 7%
Niro notes that national property prices fell for a fifth consecutive month in August and that Sydney, Australia’s largest property market, was declining at a pace not seen in four decades. Miller nevertheless expects the downturn to find a floor at around 7%.
From that bottom, Westpac forecasts price growth of 3% in 2027 and 8% in 2028. The precise percentages should be treated like any bank forecast, as a direction rather than a guarantee. The more important point is the explanation: demand remains much larger than supply.
2. Demand-Side Help Does Not Create a Single Extra Home
Miller argues that government housing support should reduce the cost of construction materials and help fund roads, water and sewage. He says that would be more effective than buyer-focused schemes such as the First Home Guarantee, which allows eligible buyers to purchase with a 5% deposit.
The issue is simple. Measures that help more people borrow can increase competition for the same limited stock. They do not directly produce another dwelling. That is why the debate over demand-side policies that affect home buyers matters most when supply cannot respond.
3. Australia Is Already Behind Its Housing Target
The National Housing Accord targets 1.2 million new homes by the middle of 2029. Spread across five years, that requires about 240,000 approvals every year. The current pace is 200,424, leaving Australia roughly 40,000 homes short each year.
Since the Accord began in July 2024, the cumulative gap has grown to about 83,000 homes. Approximately 308,000 dwellings have been completed and approvals have improved by 26%, but the minimum monthly target has not been reached once. This is why Australia’s housing-supply shortage still matters even during a price downturn.
4. Builders Cannot Add Supply Fast Enough
The shortfall is not just an approvals problem. In New South Wales alone, 1,522 construction firms failed in the last financial year. Master Builders Australia says too many projects no longer stack up financially, limiting the industry’s ability to turn approvals into completed homes.
At the same time, net overseas migration is forecast at 295,000 people for the current financial year. One side of the equation is struggling to grow while the other continues to add households. That keeps pressure on existing properties, particularly in affordable markets with limited stock.
5. The Market Can Turn Before the Headlines Do
Niro is already seeing buyer interest begin to recover in some areas while sellers remain cautious and continue delaying listings. That combination can tighten the market quickly: demand starts rebuilding just as available stock shrinks.
Prestige Sydney agent Alexander Phillips said the top end of the Sydney market bottomed in mid-July. That segment weakened first, so its stabilisation may be an early clue rather than proof. Buyers should still do their own research and watch the local signals shaping the Australian property market.
The Verdict: Both Policy Roads Still Point to Higher Prices
If the government keeps subsidising demand, more buyers compete for a limited number of homes. If it shifts support to supply, new homes still take years to approve, finance and complete while demand continues growing. The policy choices differ, but neither produces enough housing immediately.
For owners: the market may remain uneven, but a persistent supply shortage supports well-located property once buyer confidence returns. Track local listings, comparable sales and days on market rather than relying on one national forecast.
For buyers and investors: Westpac’s forecast is not a reason to buy indiscriminately. Focus on affordable areas with deep owner-occupier demand, limited new supply and sound fundamentals when choosing the right suburbs to invest in.
Summary
- Westpac expects the current downturn to bottom at about 7%
- The bank forecasts price growth of 3% in 2027 and 8% in 2028
- Anthony Miller wants housing support shifted from buyer demand to construction supply
- The National Housing Accord requires about 240,000 approvals a year, but the current pace is 200,424
- Australia is roughly 83,000 homes behind target since July 2024
- Builder failures and unviable projects are limiting new housing while migration adds demand
- Improving buyer interest and delayed listings could make the market bottom arrive sooner than expected
Frequently Asked Questions
Watch buyer inquiry levels, local listing volumes, days on market, comparable sales and clearance rates. Niro says demand is beginning to recover in some areas while sellers are still holding stock back, so local conditions may tighten before national price data confirms a turn.
Westpac CEO Anthony Miller argues that support for construction materials and essential infrastructure such as roads, water and sewage can help more homes become viable. Buyer-focused schemes can increase purchasing demand, but they do not directly add housing supply.
The Accord requires about 240,000 housing approvals a year to deliver 1.2 million homes by mid-2029. The current annual pace is 200,424, and Australia is roughly 83,000 homes behind the required trajectory since the target period began in July 2024.
Westpac expects prices to rise again because housing demand remains much larger than supply. Net overseas migration is forecast at 295,000 people for the financial year while construction approvals and completions are still running behind the National Housing Accord target.
Westpac expects the current downturn to bottom at about 7%, then forecasts property prices to rise 3% in 2027 and 8% in 2028. Those figures are forecasts rather than guarantees, but the direction is based on housing demand remaining stronger than supply.
About the Author
Niro Thambipillay
Niro is the founder of Investment Rise, one of Australia’s most trusted property buyers agencies. He has helped hundreds of first-time investors build property portfolios and was voted one of the most trusted Real Estate entrepreneurs in the Asia Pacific region (APAC 2022). Niro is also the author of “How to Build a Property Portfolio That Pays You an Income Every Month.”
