Track suburb-level listings, days on market, comparable sales, construction supply, rental vacancy and inspection activity. National and city medians can hide rising affordable suburbs and falling premium suburbs within the same market.

Buyer competition remains strong in selected affordable pockets of Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, regional Victoria and parts of Melbourne. The strongest areas generally sit below about $1.2 million and combine limited supply, owner-occupier demand and tight rental markets.

A fall of that size is possible in an individual market, but a broad national decline would usually require extensive forced selling. A 2025 RBA analysis indicated that about 90% of mortgage holders would retain positive equity even after a 30% fall, limiting that risk.

Premium markets are more exposed to affordability pressure and can have thinner buyer pools when confidence weakens. Affordable suburbs attract a wider group of owner-occupiers and investors, especially where listings and new housing supply are limited.

No. Recent rolling figures show a broad slowdown, but the weakness is concentrated in particular cities and premium price segments. Australia’s largest national decline in the previous 40 years was 7.5%, and current suburb-level conditions remain highly varied.