The data suggests the supply situation is getting worse, not better. Australia’s 200,000 home shortage is growing, construction is falling behind targets, and listings continue to decline. While timing any market perfectly is impossible, waiting for conditions to improve is waiting for something the current data does not support. Location selection is critical — the market is performing very differently across regions.

Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide have the most constrained supply. Perth’s listings have fallen more than 50% from their 2018–2019 peak. Brisbane has roughly halved from 30,000 to about 13,000–14,000 listings, and Adelaide has dropped from 18,000 to around 8,000. These cities are also seeing the strongest price growth nationally.

Rising rates impact property markets in two ways. First, they cause existing sellers to delay listing, reducing the number of properties available to buy. Second, they increase construction costs and reduce buyer purchasing power, causing new development projects to stall or become unviable. Both effects reduce supply, which in supply-constrained markets can actually support prices rather than push them down.

Barrenjoey, a major Australian investment bank, predicted that housing turnover will fall 17% this year. Their economists also noted that mid-size capitals like Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide are unlikely to see significant price declines due to extremely tight supply conditions.

Based on current data, a broad property crash is unlikely. Australia has a structural shortage of approximately 200,000 homes, listings are declining, and new construction is running well below targets. While Sydney and Melbourne may see flat or choppy price movement, the supply-constrained cities of Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide are expected to continue growing.