Urgent Warning for Brisbane Property Market
By: Niro Thambipillay
July 22, 2026
Brisbane’s property boom is pausing, but the underlying demand and supply figures do not suggest it is over. One in five suburbs may have recently moved into negative territory, yet the weakness is concentrated at the expensive end while affordable Brisbane property continues to grow.
In this article, Niro Thambipillay compares the latest headlines with Brisbane’s history, examines Queensland’s population and housing shortfall, explains the Olympic construction pressure, and identifies the price segments still attracting buyers.
TL;DR
Brisbane’s premium market has slowed, but its affordable quartile grew 2.6% over the latest three months. Queensland added almost 99,000 residents in one year while approvals and registered land remain below what is needed. Relative affordability, constrained construction and the 2032 Olympic infrastructure program continue to support selected Brisbane and Southeast Queensland markets.
Key Takeaways
- Headlines have been wrong before: Brisbane’s median was about $493,500 during a 2019 slowdown and is now around $1.1 million.
- Queensland added almost 99,000 people: annual population growth reached about 1.8%, above the national average.
- Housing supply is falling behind: Queensland needs roughly 40,000 to 45,000 homes a year, but approvals and land registrations remain lower.
- Construction is getting more expensive: apartment building costs rose 71% and house costs rose 41% over three years.
- Affordable Brisbane is outperforming: the lowest-priced quartile grew 2.6% over three months, compared with 0.4% at the premium end.
Is the Brisbane Property Boom Over?
Brisbane’s market is no longer rising evenly. Some premium suburbs have weakened, but the more affordable end is still growing. The better question is not whether all of Brisbane will rise or fall, but which price segments have enough demand and too little supply.
1. Today’s Headlines Resemble the Warnings From 2019
In early 2019, Brisbane values fell 0.2% over a month and the median dwelling value was about $493,500. Headlines presented that short-term decline as an opportunity for buyers because the boom appeared to be ending.
Brisbane’s median house price is now around $1.1 million, depending on the data source. A buyer who abandoned the market because of the 2019 headlines could have missed more than $600,000 in median price growth. Short-term weakness does not automatically establish the conditions a genuine property crash would need.
2. Queensland’s Population Is Still Growing Rapidly
Queensland added almost 99,000 residents in one year, an increase of about 1.8% and well above the national average. Just over half came through overseas migration, while roughly one-quarter came from interstate migration.
The Sunshine Coast became Australia’s leading destination for domestic migration, while the Fraser Coast ranked inside the top five and Toowoomba recorded one of the country’s strongest domestic migration rates. This population movement continues to add housing demand across Southeast Queensland and selected regional markets.
3. Housing and Land Supply Are Not Keeping Up
With an average household size of about 2.5 people, Queensland needs roughly 40,000 to 45,000 additional homes a year simply to house new arrivals. The state is approving only around 37,500 dwellings annually and remains behind its broader housing targets.
RPM Group reported Southeast Queensland land registrations at their lowest level in a decade. Just over 21,500 lots were registered in the latest financial year against a requirement of roughly 34,500, leaving a shortfall close to 13,000 lots.
Even Logan, Moreton Bay and Ipswich, the council areas often assumed to have the most development room, had less than one month of available land supply. Logan had about one week. Approvals alone cannot solve the shortage when serviced land is unavailable.
4. Relative Affordability and the Olympics Add More Pressure
Brisbane’s median house price of about $1.1 million remains substantially below Sydney’s roughly $1.7 million. That difference continues to attract households moving north, particularly while Brisbane offers employment, infrastructure and lifestyle advantages.
Previous Olympic hosts also experienced substantial property growth. Sydney values rose about 60% from winning the bid in 1993 to hosting the Games in 2000, followed by another 38% over the next two years. The Olympics alone do not guarantee growth, but they can increase global visibility and infrastructure investment.
Queensland’s construction costs are already the highest on the east coast. Apartment building costs increased 71% over three years and house costs rose 41%. As Olympic projects compete for trades and materials, new residential construction may become slower and more expensive, widening the demand and supply gap.
5. Affordable Brisbane Is Still Outperforming
Over the three months to the end of June, Brisbane’s most expensive quartile grew only 0.4%, which is effectively flat. Middle-market properties grew 1.6%, while the most affordable quartile increased 2.6%.
If the affordable segment maintained that quarterly pace, it would be tracking near 10% annual growth. More buyers can compete at lower prices, while high construction costs make it difficult for developers to add large volumes of comparable supply.
The Verdict: Brisbane Is Pausing, Not Finished
The Brisbane boom is not moving in a straight line. Premium properties are slowing, but population growth, limited land, insufficient building and relative affordability continue to support the broader market.
For owners: judge performance by comparable sales and buyer depth in your price segment, not by a citywide headline.
For buyers and investors: avoid buying Brisbane blindly. Focus on quality homes in affordable pockets with infrastructure, amenities, owner-occupier demand and limited competing supply. Those fundamentals matter most when choosing the right suburbs to invest in.
Summary
- Brisbane’s current slowdown is concentrated in premium markets
- The median house price rose from about $493,500 in 2019 to around $1.1 million
- Queensland added almost 99,000 residents in one year
- The state needs roughly 40,000 to 45,000 homes annually for new residents
- Southeast Queensland faces a land-registration shortfall close to 13,000 lots
- Apartment construction costs rose 71% and house costs rose 41% over three years
- Affordable Brisbane grew 2.6% over three months, outperforming the premium quartile
Frequently Asked Questions
The affordable quartile recently grew 2.6% over three months, compared with 1.6% in the middle market and 0.4% at the premium end. Buyers should still assess individual suburbs, supply and property quality.
The Games can increase Brisbane’s global visibility, employment and infrastructure investment. However, Olympic construction may also compete for trades and materials, making residential development slower and more expensive.
No. Queensland is approving around 37,500 dwellings a year, below the estimated annual need, while Southeast Queensland land registrations are close to 13,000 lots short of requirements.
Queensland added almost 99,000 residents in one year, including substantial overseas and interstate migration. This population growth creates demand for roughly 40,000 to 45,000 additional homes annually.
No. Brisbane’s premium market has slowed, but affordable price segments are still growing. Population growth, limited land, insufficient construction and relative affordability continue to support selected Brisbane and Southeast Queensland suburbs.
About the Author
Niro Thambipillay
Niro is the founder of Investment Rise, one of Australia’s most trusted property buyers agencies. He has helped hundreds of first-time investors build property portfolios and was voted one of the most trusted Real Estate entrepreneurs in the Asia Pacific region (APAC 2022). Niro is also the author of “How to Build a Property Portfolio That Pays You an Income Every Month.”
